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“在大氣污染治理方面，清華大學(xué)科研團隊沒(méi)有一次缺席過(guò)國家的大仗硬仗。”5月7日，中國工程院院士、清華大學(xué)環(huán)境學(xué)院賀克斌教授在接受包括科技日報在內的媒體專(zhuān)訪(fǎng)時(shí)表示，此前在北京奧運空氣質(zhì)量保障、大氣十條、藍天保衛戰等關(guān)鍵戰役中，清華大學(xué)歷時(shí)20多年自主研發(fā)的平臺發(fā)揮了重要作用，如今正在為碳達峰、碳中和背景下“減污降碳”協(xié)同治理的科學(xué)評估和決策支持持續發(fā)力。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 近日，《國家科學(xué)評論》刊發(fā)了清華大學(xué)與合作團隊在該平臺支持下共同完成的科研成果——《碳中和背景下中國2015—2060年P(guān)M2.5空氣質(zhì)量改善路徑》，首次定量揭示了碳達峰與碳中和目標下中國及重點(diǎn)區域2015年—2060年的空氣質(zhì)量持續改善路徑。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><b><span id="gumaoa2a4um" class="15" style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 數字“互動(dòng)劇”呈現50年后的模樣</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “在自主研發(fā)的平臺中，可以動(dòng)態(tài)地模擬中國從過(guò)去到未來(lái)各行各業(yè)的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)和排放變化。”論文主要作者之一、清華大學(xué)地球系統科學(xué)系教授張強介紹，在中國碳中和與清潔空氣協(xié)同科學(xué)評估與決策支持平臺（CNCAP）中，每個(gè)行業(yè)的排放路徑會(huì )有一個(gè)全景式的展示。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 這些排放路徑是動(dòng)態(tài)的，可以理解為一個(gè)“互動(dòng)劇”，碳達峰、碳中和是未來(lái)一段時(shí)期人類(lèi)應對氣候變化的一部史詩(shī)式實(shí)踐巨制。當施加不同的干預（如產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、技術(shù)革新、治理措施等）時(shí)，各行業(yè)排放情況不同，不同行業(yè)的排放路徑又交匯起來(lái)，共同影響中國區域的大氣環(huán)境變化。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 在這部史詩(shī)的“數字孿生”模擬中，結局目標明確：中國將力爭2030年前二氧化碳排放達到峰值，努力爭取2060年前實(shí)現碳中和。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 目標定了，CNCAP平臺基于對真實(shí)世界的仿真進(jìn)行了路徑模擬。研究發(fā)現，在2030年之前，提升可再生能源的比例，推動(dòng)鋼鐵水泥等高耗能產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量盡早達峰，加快散煤清潔化替代進(jìn)程，持續推進(jìn)非電行業(yè)、柴油機等重點(diǎn)行業(yè)的污染治理，可在實(shí)現碳達峰目標的同時(shí)，使全國絕大部分地區PM2.5年均濃度達標。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “過(guò)去幾年，減排主要通過(guò)末端治理，例如在火電廠(chǎng)、水泥廠(chǎng)安裝措施、加強監管。”賀克斌說(shuō)。但末端治理的邊界漸顯，未來(lái)需要新的方案。改變能源使用結構會(huì )成為未來(lái)減排的主要推動(dòng)力。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “能源結構轉變需要科技引領(lǐng)。”賀克斌說(shuō)，光伏發(fā)電成本近年來(lái)的陡降給出了很好的范例（從1990年的100美元/度到2020年的不到2美分/度）。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 預測顯示，到2060年我國將基本完成低碳能源轉型，可再生能源發(fā)電占比將達到70%以上，工業(yè)部門(mén)終端煤炭消費比例低于15%，新能源車(chē)占比達到60%以上，民用部門(mén)能源全面清潔化。到那時(shí)，全國人群PM2.5年均暴露水平達到8微克/立方米左右。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><b><span id="gumaoa2a4um" class="15" style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “坐冷板凳”的基礎研究給出“自主”底氣</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 期待排放“歸零”的同時(shí)，可能有人會(huì )問(wèn)：對未來(lái)的預測，夠不夠準？</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “在這個(gè)平臺上，一個(gè)鋼鐵廠(chǎng)的排放會(huì )被細致地刻畫(huà)。”賀克斌舉例道，它的煉鐵、煉鋼、焦化等不同工藝的排放量都是不同的，在系統中會(huì )分節點(diǎn)、分工藝地體現。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “從20世紀90年代到現在20多年的時(shí)間，我們一直做同一件事情，將中國的生產(chǎn)生活與污染物的排放建立聯(lián)系。”賀克斌說(shuō)，這個(gè)可以說(shuō)是世界上最復雜的體系，不僅區域跨度大、污染物種類(lèi)多，還涵蓋從最落后到最先進(jìn)的技術(shù)。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 隨著(zhù)平臺的發(fā)展，模型模擬精度由低到高、數據量由小到大，CNCAP平臺從模型研制到軟件開(kāi)發(fā)再到超算算力實(shí)現自主創(chuàng )新。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> 近30年“坐穿板凳”的積累，讓平臺不僅能給出粗線(xiàn)條的答案，還能夠給出分配到空間、時(shí)間的高精度“藍圖”。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:7.8500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; margin:5pt 0pt; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-autospace:ideograph-numeric"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:9.5000pt"><span style="font-family:font-size:16px\"><span style="color:#444444"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="letter-spacing:0.0000pt"><span style="text-transform:none"><span style="font-style:normal"> “在全球氣候變化和國家碳達峰、碳中和重大戰略背景下，未來(lái)我們將面向人民生命健康，進(jìn)一步研發(fā)排放近實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)模擬技術(shù)，構建包含各類(lèi)有毒有害物質(zhì)的全組分排放清單。”賀克斌說(shuō)。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="p" style="margin-top:7.8500pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; 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